. | ||||||||||||||||
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
[1] Offensive Runs Above Average over 700 PAs (approxiamately a full-season of full-time play) using wOBA as projected by Marcel. Average wOBA (lgwOBA) is projected as .332. Formula: ((woBA - lgwOBA)/1.15)*700 [2] RV/700 converted to a wins scale.(RV/700)/10.5 [3] Defensive runs above or below average over a full season at the primary position as projected by Rally for 2009. See http://home.comcast.net/~briankaat/statsite.html [4] DefRns converted to a wins scale [5] Positional adjustments over a full season as per Tom Tango. Primary position guesstimated by me. Numbers are wins C=1.25, SS=.75, 2B/3B/CF=.25, LF/RF=-.75, 1B=-1.25, DH = -2.25 (prospective, in retrospect or for players who have done if for a long time, I give -1.75 since they've shown they can overcome or have dealt with the difficulty in hitting off the bench. [6] Replacement level over a a full season. For position players, replacement level is 2 wins in NL, and 2.5 wins in the AL. I have used the replacement level of the league in which the player spent all or most of the last three years in (since that is all Marcel looks at). Some of this involves "guesstimation." In the case of players who have spent relatively equal time in both leagues, I use 2.25. [7] Total projected value over a full season. BtWns + DWns + Pos. Adj. + Replace. Keep in mind that almost not player gets full playing time in a season, hence the 85% figure used in projecting value. This is here to both show my work and allow people individually to revalue players (especailly those who are signed as bench players) according to different playing time estimates. [8] Projected full-time WAR * 85%. Playing time is difficult to project. Give that most of these players are older and at least at the beginning of their decline phase, 85% may be a bit high, but it's a good start and a nice generic figure that in between more injury-prone players and "Iron Men." [9] Number of years of the deal, _not_ the salary per year. Assumes $4.84M/WAR + replacement cost ($400,000) per year with 10% salary inflation and 0.5 WAR decline a year built-in. The deals should all go up yearly... in some cases, the number goes down after a certain point. You could say this is because some teams might want to pay a below-replacement level player (hey, it happens all the time). More cynically, you might say that I put too much time in this, got lazy, and couldn't figure out a simple rule in order to accomplish this. Blank spaces means the player isn't worth paying for that long of a deal, according to the combined projections. If you disagree, hey, don't shoot the messenger. |