Ledger economic panel


.		How stable is the economy, locally and nationally?	How worried or focused should people on the South Shore be, about what happens with (banks, stock markets, etc.) in Europe, Asia and beyond? How does that affect us?	How will the stock markets' drop affect employment?	What are you doing with your investments, and what are you recommending to your friends?
.	Joseph F. Casey, Hingham, HarborOne Credit Union	The local economy is holding up better than the nation in general. Locally, the trends are not favorable with increasing foreclosures, declining real estate values, rising unemployment, and softening retail sales. All of these negative trends/factors are better locally than the nation as a hole and certain states such as California, Florida, and Nevada, in particular. We are benefiting locally with a large employment base in medical and higher education fields, which have not been negatively impacted.	Globalization is here and people on the South Shore are being impacted. Many of our larger banks are foreign owned (TD Bank, Sovereign, Citizens). More autos are sold by foreign manufacturers than domestics. Therefore, the international credit crisis, has reduced credit availability for all but the most credit worthy consumers/businesses.	If the market's collapse is prolonged, it will lead to higher unemployment. The greater Boston area is home to many money managers and hedgefunds. As their compensation is based in large part on assets under management, a 40% decline in stock values will have a very tangible negative impact on their revenue stream , leading to cost reductions via reductions in force.	I am slowly putting cash back to work in the stock market. I have invested in credit union cd's. My advice to friends who have asked for it, is to not panic and do anything rash. Government-insured deposits are safer than having cash "hidden" at home. Getting out of the market now may be counter productive, as you will 'lock in" the loss and miss out on an eventual snapback.
.	Roy Harris, Hingham, senior editor of CFO Magazine	The national economy appears to have headed into what should be an extended period of instability. I expect eastern Massachusetts to be more stable that much of the country, but an area that still will suffer.	Worries should be growing based on the extent of the damage to corporations globally, nationally and locally. Companies that cannot get access to capital cannot grow, or even maintain previous growth plans. Layoffs result, and that leads to lower sales for companies, and a downward spiral. More people out of work, and jobs paying less, threatens the health of business in malls and local business districts.	It depends on the industry. For companies, it's not so much the stock-market drop as it is the inability to borrow at reasonable cost. For consumers, the market's drop scares them into buying less, and that is where the impact on companies, and on employment, comes.	Since I am only a few years from retirement, I switched my 401(k) money to 3/4 "fixed income" and 1/4 stocks last August, and that has cushioned me a little. While many of my friends have seen their retirement money go down 40% since Jan. 1, mine has fallen around 15%. I'll keep the allocations where I have them, and just watch out for companies that could go under. Like many people, I was burned by some 401(k) money in Fannie Mae, for example.
.	Louis Harvey, Cohasset, DALBAR, Inc.	The national short-term threat is severe but the solutions under consideration and general direction threaten the long term viability. Locally, things are remarkably stable.	The US economy has become dependent on foreign sources for energy, manufacturing and for export revenues. In effect these countries control the domestic economy so their economic failure would cripple the US. From a South Shore perspective, we could expect shortages of imported products and materials with concurrent increases in federal, state and local taxes.	The immediate impact is a contraction in the securities industry as leverage is brought under control. There is likely to be less severe contraction in the wider economy as lending practices become more prudent. The decline in market capitalization will also add to the labor force since more people will have to get a job or remain employed for longer.	I believe that the best option is to invest in the stock market, particularly as values decline. The decline in real estate values is trivial compared to the decline in stocks so my recommendation is to buy on the dips and hold on for the long haul.
.	Bruce Addison, Scituate, RBC Wealth Management	So far the economy had held up fairly well considering the enormous strains caused by the housing market correction. We do anticipate employment conditions will continue to deteriorate in the near term as businesses large and small attempt to contain expenses and adjust to a challenging economic enviroment.	No one is totally immune from the current slowdown. What started as a U.S. problem centered on subprime real estate loans has expanded into a full-blown global challenge. People should be confident that the Goverment is being aggressive in their attempts to avoid a deep recession. The incredible drive and spirit of the American workforce will overcome the current challenge.	Applications for unemployment insurance, and the S&P 500 Stock Market Index are both leading economic indicators that historically have turned down together before the official start of a recession.	In general the best thing to do with your investments is to hold the course. If you need to use the money you have invested in the next 2 to 3 years, you should have adjusted the allocation before the sell off, not afterwards.
.	Glen White, South Yarmouth, CEO	I think locally we have been more insulated than certain formerly high-growth regions like Las Vegas, parts of Florida and California, and Arizona. Obviously the national economy is in disarray right now, with great uncertainty about when the dust will settle.	Both economies are struggling right now in much the same manner, with each seeking similar remedies. I would think it's worth keeping an eye on as the markets react to the remedies.	The markets decline is a reaction to the troubles of Wall Street, housing, and the mortgage business. Outside of those troubles, the economy was functioning fine. Of course, oil prices were raising fears, but that appears to have at least temporarily been corralled.	If anything, this may be a good time to enter the stock market if you have available cash because there are some great buys out there, if you do your research.
.	Dan Heitzman, Marshfield, StoneBridge Financial Consultants	I believe the local economy is more stable than the national economy because of our industry mix. However, I have had three clients laid-off in the last week and I believe it is only the tip of the iceberg over the next three months.	We live in a global world as made clear by Freidman's The World is Flat. We tend to be too provincial in our outlook. The majority of GDP occurs outside of the US and this balance will only increase in the future. Some companies on the South Shore that do business abroad may actually see an increase in their business because of the favorable exchange rates for exports.	As the markets drop, it will make it harder for companies to raise capital. With less capital for expansion, it will make it more probable that companies will scale back on their hiring plans and less likely that they will replace the job openings that normally occur resulting from retirement. Because people have seen their retirement funds eroded they will be less likely to retire which will compund the problem for people looking for work.	I am encouraging my clients to trust history and recognize that there have always been challenges in the past and we have always, inevitably, seen the market go up. I view the next 6-12 months as presenting, perhaps, one of the best buying opportunities in my lifetime.
.	Edward J. Merritt President & CEO Mt Washington Bank	Currently, the local and national economy is very volatile and quite unstable. I believe that things will get worse before they get better.	I believe people should be worried about the global economy because it will eventually have an impact on everyone. The banking crisis is adding to the current credit squeeze, hence a bank failing in another country or part of the USA will create greater concerns adding to our credit crisis hence impacting local residents	No direct correlation but significant drops impact net worth and may limit economic expansion thus jobs could be impacted indirectly	Nothing, I am fairly well balanced, I am advising people to not overreact right now but at a later date it may be a good idea to rebalance their portfolio. Sometimes a good decision is to do nothing, the market is very volatile and people should not be liquidating their holdings right now assuming the companies invested in are going to survive.
.	Mitch Doren, Marshfield, Securitas Financial Group	The economy is extremely unstable both nationally and locally.	Everyone should be concerned about the world wide economy and its impact on everyone. The current credit issues and instability in the stock market has a negative effect on our local economy. Less money gets put back into our local economy ( consumer spending) and industry suffers, jobs are lost etc...	The current financial crisis will have a negative effect on employment both in the private and public sector. Gov. Patrick has already announced sweeping cutbacks at the state level that will result in the loss of thousands of jobs. Unemployment rates will continue to rise.	Investment strategies are certainly based on the individual risk tolerance and time horizons of each investor. With that being said, all long term money invested in the equity market we are recommending to hold those positions. Selling in a down market will only guarantee a loss. There is tremendous value in the market and for those with an excess in cash positions it is a very favorable time to buy in.
.	Dolly Di Pesa, Milton, Di Pesa & Company, CPAs,	Not very stable. Everyone is holding back on spending because they do not know what the future will bring.	We are a global marketplace so all markets affect us. Worry does not help anything but assessing your current financial situation could ease your mind. Don't panic. Review your cash situation and your anticipated needs. Take a fresh look at your monthly income and expenses. Do you have sufficient reserves? Discipline your spending to limit your reliance on credit.	Unemployment will increase as employers layoff to beef up their bottomline	I am holding the line on investments. No need to sell now as you would be selling low.
.	Dagmar Pollex, Milton, estate planning attorney	The economy is very unstable right now in part because of the credit crisis and also because financial turbulence in the markets has created much uncertainty and concern.	These days, international finance has a larger impact on our economy so when the markets in Europe and Asia close lower, that often affects the behavior on Wall St.	Consumers are curbing and cutting back on spending and reduced revenue forces companies to reduce their workforce.The drop in the stock market directly reduces financial companies revenue so those industries are reducing their workforce.	I think getting expert help with investments is more important than ever. I am aiming for the long term (10 year horizon) with my retirement accounts.Also, I am making sure to have at least 12 months living expenses in an accessible savings account.Finally, I recommend (and am doing it myself) tracking expenditures weekly in order to eliminate frivilous or impetuous purchases.
.	Frank J. Realin, Weymouth (retired)	Precarious... subject to many economic and financial factors.	People should be very concerned. Past and present decisions made by businesses and goverments will have an impact on all of us. Those who have planned properly will prosper; others will lose.	Negatively.	Two years ago I recommended selling certain stocks and converting into goverment securities. (Being retired, I sold all my stocks and invested in goverment securities years ago.)
.