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State2004 MarginExpected 2008RCP 7/1RCP 9/28RCP 10/8RCP since JulyRCP since 9/28538-ProjectionRCP McCain Outperform538 McCain OutperformAvg. McCain OutperformMcCain SpendingObama Spending2004 VotesMcCain per VoterObama per VoterNet Obama LeadObama to McCain RatioNet Obama LeadRCP since 9/28RCP since JulyTV Gap04 vs 08 TrendRCP since 9/28RCP since JulyFits Pattern?

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Colorado4.7%-2.9%-5.3%-5.4%-4%1.3%1.4%-6.9%-1.1%-4%-2.55%$801000$9800002130330$0.38$0.46$0.08122.35%$0.081.40%1.3%Obama-SlightObama-ModerateMcCain-ModerateMcCain-SlightBattleground

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Florida5%-2.6%2.2%1.6%-3%-5.2%-4.6%-3.6%-0.4%-1%-0.70%$659000$22130007609810$0.09$0.29$0.20335.81%$0.20-4.60%-5.2%Obama-MassiveObama-SlightObama-MassiveObama-MassiveYes

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Indiana20.7%13.1%-0.5%2.3%2.5%3%0.2%-0.1%-10.6%-13.2%-11.90%$179000$6140002468002$0.07$0.25$0.18343.02%$0.180.20%3%Obama-MassiveObama-MassiveMcCain-SlightObama-ModerateNo

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Iowa0.7%-6.9%-6.4%-9.2%-9.5%-3.1%-0.3%-12.5%-2.6%-5.6%-4.10%$227000$1720004839252$0.05$0.04-$0.0175.77%-$0.01-0.30%-3.1%McCain-SlightObama-ModerateObama-SlightObama-ModerateBattleground

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Michigan-3.4%-11%-2%-6.6%-7%-5%-0.4%-8.2%4%2.8%3.40%$1250000$15900004839252$0.26$0.33$0.07127.20%$0.07-0.40%-5%Obama-SlightMcCain-ModerateObama-SlightObama-MassiveBattleground

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Minnesota-3.4%-11%-11%-2.8%-9.8%1.2%-7%-10.3%1.2%0.7%0.95%$608000$1210002828387$0.21$0.04-$0.1719.90%-$0.17-7.00%1.2%McCain-MassiveMcCain-SlightObama-MassiveMcCain-SlightYes (for McCain)

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Missouri7.2%-0.4%5%4.2%0.3%-4.7%-3.9%-0.4%0.7%0%0.35%$193000$4920002731364$0.07$0.18$0.11254.92%$0.11-3.90%-4.7%Obama-MassiveMcCain-SlightObama-ModerateObama-MassiveYes

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Nevada2.6%-5%0%1.7%-3%-3%-4.7%-3.4%2%1.6%1.80%$329000616000829587$0.40$0.74$0.35187.23%$0.35-4.70%-3%Obama-ModerateMcCain-ModerateObama-MassiveObama-ModerateBattleground

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New Hampshire-1.4%-9%-0.7%-1.3%-10.7%-10%-9.4%-6.9%-1.7%2.1%0.20%$160000$354000677738$0.24$0.52$0.29221.25%$0.29-9.40%-10%Obama-MassiveMcCain-SlightObama-MassiveObama-MassiveYes

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New Mexico1.1%-6.5%-1%-6%-7.8%-6.8%-1.8%-7.7%-1.3%-1.2%-1.25%$144000$185000756304$0.19$0.24$0.05128.47%$0.05-1.80%-6.8%Obama-SlightObama-ModerateObama-ModerateObama-MassiveBattleground

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North Carolina12.4%4.8%4.5%-0.7%-0.6%-5.1%0.1%-0.8%-5.4%-5.6%-5.50%$148000$12360003501007$0.04$0.35$0.31835.14%$0.310.10%-5.1%Obama-MassiveObama-MassiveMcCain-SlightObama-MassiveYes

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Ohio2.1%-5.5%-4.5%1.2%-4%0.5%-5.2%-2.7%1.5%2.8%2.15%$1727000$22180005627908$0.31$0.39$0.09128.43%$0.09-5.20%0.5%Obama-SlightMcCain-ModerateObama-MassiveMcCain-SlightBattleground

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Pennsylvania-2.5%-10.1%-6.4%-9.2%-12.4%-6%-3.2%-8.9%-2.3%1.2%-0.55%$1645000$22020005769590$0.29$0.38$0.10133.86%$0.10-3.20%-6%Obama-ModerateObama-SlightObama-ModerateObama-MassiveBattleground

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Virginia8.2%0.6%0.7%-1.8%-4.8%-5.5%-3%-7.3%-5.4%-7.9%-6.65%$547000$20570003198367$0.17$0.64$0.47376.05%$0.47-3.00%-5.5%Obama-MassiveObama-MassiveObama-ModerateObama-MassiveYes

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Wisconsin-0.4%-8%-9.3%-3.8%-8%1.3%-4.2%-10.3%0%-2.3%-1.15%$896000$11890002997007$0.30$0.40$0.10132.70%$0.10-4.20%1.3%Obama-ModerateObama-SlightObama-MassiveMcCain-ModerateBattleground

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AVERAGE3.57%-4.03%-2.31%-2.39%-5.45%-3.14%-3.07%-6.00%-1.43%-1.97%-1.70%$634,200$1,082,6003,386,927$0.20$0.35$0.15170.70%$0.15-3.07%-3.14%

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Strong Obama TV Lead7.81%0.21%1.60%0.86%-2.76%-4.36%-3.61%-3.21%-2.97%-3.43%-3.20%$316,429$1,083,1433,002,268$0.15$0.43$0.27364.77%$0.27-3.61%-4.35714285714286%

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Strong O TV Lead - Indiana5.67%-1.93%1.95%0.62%-3.63%-5.58%-4.25%-3.73%-1.70%-1.80%-1.75%$339,333$1,161,3333,091,312$0.17$0.46$0.29368.40%$0.29-4.25%-5.58333333333333%

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Weak Obama TV Lead0.94%-6.66%-4.49%-4.98%-7.41%-2.93%-2.44%-8.06%-0.75%-1.40%-1.08%$868,625$1,190,6253,748,67423.12%31.63%8.51%139.00%8.51%-2.44%-2.925%

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P.S. The stakes are too high for us to do nothing. I hope you'll stand with me in supporting Stand for Marriage.