| | | | | | | | | | | | . | | RCP Winner | Margin | Winner | Margin | Difference | Candidate Strongly Favored? | Absolute Error | Did Trend Benefit Winner? | Pro-Winner Shift | | . | PR | Clinton | 16 | Clinton | 36 | 20 | Yes | 20 | Yes | 20 | | . | SC | Obama | 11.6 | Obama | 28.9 | 17.3 | Yes | 17.3 | Yes | 17.3 | | . | GA | Obama | 18 | Obama | 35 | 17 | Yes | 17 | Yes | 17 | | . | AL | Clinton | -1.2 | Obama | 14.1 | 15.3 | No | 15.3 | Yes | 15.3 | | . | WI | Obama | 4.3 | Obama | 17.4 | 13.1 | No | 13.1 | Yes | 13.1 | | . | NH | Obama | 8.3 | Clinton | -2.6 | -10.9 | No | 10.9 | Yes | 10.9 | | . | CA | Obama | 1.2 | Clinton | -9.6 | -10.8 | No | 10.8 | Yes | 10.8 | | . | VA | Obama | 17.7 | Obama | 28.2 | 10.5 | Yes | 10.5 | Yes | 10.5 | | . | MS | Obama | 15.4 | Obama | 24.5 | 9.1 | Yes | 9.1 | Yes | 9.1 | | . | MA | Clinton | -7 | Clinton | -15.4 | -8.4 | No | 8.4 | Yes | 8.4 | | . | RI | Clinton | -9.7 | Clinton | -18 | -8.3 | No | 8.3 | Yes | 8.3 | | . | MI | Clinton | -23.5 | Clinton | -15.5 | 8 | Yes | 8 | No | -8 | | . | CT | Clinton | -4 | Obama | 3.1 | 7.1 | No | 7.1 | Yes | 7.1 | | . | MO | Clinton | -5.7 | Obama | 1.2 | 6.9 | No | 6.9 | Yes | 6.9 | | . | NC | Obama | 8 | Obama | 14.7 | 6.7 | No | 6.7 | Yes | 6.7 | | . | KY | Clinton | -29 | Clinton | -35.6 | -6.6 | Yes | 6.6 | Yes | 6.6 | | . | WV | Clinton | -35 | Clinton | -41.3 | -6.3 | Yes | 6.3 | Yes | 6.3 | | . | OR | Obama | 12 | Obama | 17.6 | 5.6 | Yes | 5.6 | Yes | 5.6 | | . | IN | Clinton | -5 | Clinton | -1.4 | 3.6 | No | 3.6 | No | -3.6 | |
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| | | | | | | | | | | | . | PA | Clinton | -6.1 | Clinton | -9.2 | -3.1 | No | 3.1 | Yes | 3.1 | | . | OH | Clinton | -7.1 | Clinton | -10.1 | -3 | No | 3 | Yes | 3 | | . | FL | Clinton | -19.6 | Clinton | -16.7 | 2.9 | Yes | 2.9 | No | -2.9 | | . | AZ | Clinton | -6 | Clinton | -8.8 | -2.8 | No | 2.8 | Yes | 2.8 | | . | NJ | Clinton | -7.7 | Clinton | -9.8 | -2.1 | No | 2.1 | Yes | 2.1 | | . | TX | Clinton | -1.7 | Clinton | -3.5 | -1.8 | No | 1.8 | Yes | 1.8 | | . | VT | Obama | 19 | Obama | 20.7 | 1.7 | Yes | 1.7 | Yes | 1.7 | | . | IL | Obama | 33 | Obama | 31.5 | -1.5 | Yes | 1.5 | No | -1.5 | | . | OK | Clinton | -25 | Clinton | -23.6 | 1.4 | Yes | 1.4 | No | -1.4 | | . | MD | Obama | 22.3 | Obama | 23.5 | 1.2 | Yes | 1.2 | Yes | 1.2 | | . | TN | Clinton | -13 | Clinton | -13.3 | -0.3 | Yes | 0.3 | Yes | 0.3 | | . | NY | Clinton | -17.2 | Clinton | -17.5 | -0.3 | Yes | 0.3 | Yes | 0.3 | | . | Data from RealClearPolitics.com polling averages | | | | | | AVG | 6.89032258064516 | AVG | 5.76774193548387 | | . | | | | | | | | | | | |
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