| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | . | Skype | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | . | Financial Model | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | . | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | . | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | . | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | . | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | . | | | QUARTERS | | | | | | | | | | YEARS | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | . | | | Dec-05A* | Mar-06A | Jun-06A | Sep-06A | Dec-06A | Mar-07A | Jun-07 | Sep-07E | Dec-07E | | 2004A | 2005A | 2006A | 2007E | 2008E | 2009E | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | . | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | . | Revenue (000s) | | $24,809 | $35,500 | $44,000 | $50,000 | $66,000 | $79,000 | $90,000 [1] | $100,800 | $113,400 | | $6,225 | $67,362 | $195,500 | $383,200 | $670,600 | $1,005,900 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | . | | Seq. Change | | 43% | 24% | 14% | 32% | 20% | 14% | 12% | 13% | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | . | | Y/Y Change | | | | | 166% | 123% | 105% | 102% | 72% | | | 982% | 190% | 96% | 75% | 50% | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | . | | Absolute Change | | $10,691 | $8,500 | $6,000 | $16,000 | $13,000 | $11,000 | $10,800 | $12,600 | | | $61,137 | $128,138 | $187,700 | $287,400 | $335,300 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | . | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | . | Registered Users (000s) | | 74,700 | 94,600 | 113,000 | 136,000 | 171,000 | 195,500 | 220,000 [2] | 240,000 | 270,000 | | NA | 74,700 | 171,000 | 270,000 | 405,000 | 526,500 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | . | | Seq. Change | | 27% | 19% | 20% | 26% | 14% | 13% | 9% | 13% | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | . | | Y/Y Change | | | | | 129% | 107% | 95% | 76% | 58% | | | | 129% | 58% | 50% | 30% | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | . | | Absolute Change | | 19,900 | 18,400 | 23,000 | 35,000 | 24,500 | 24,500 | 20,000 | 30,000 | | | | 96,300 | 99,000 | 135,000 | 121,500 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | . | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | . | Monthly Revenue / User | | $0.22 | $0.13 | $0.13 | $0.12 | $0.13 | $0.13 | $0.14 [3] | $0.14 | $0.14 | | | | $0.13 | $0.14 | $0.17 | $0.18 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
|
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | . | | Seq. Change | | -44% | 4% | -6% | 5% | 5% | 1% | 3% | 0% | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | . | | Y/Y Change | | | | | -42% | 8% | 5% | 14% | 9% | | | | | 9% | 14% | 9% | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | . | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | . | Skype-to-Skype Minutes (bil) | | 5.21 | 6.94 | 7.12 | 6.55 | 7.60 | 7.70 | 7.10 [4] | 6.75 | 7.69 | | | | 28.21 | 29.23 | 33.62 | 39.67 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | . | | Seq. Change | | 33% | 3% | -8% | 16% | 1% | -8% | -5% | 14% | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | . | | Y/Y Change | | | | | 46% | 11% | 0% | 3% | 1% | | | | | 4% | 15% | 18% | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | . | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | . | SkypeOut Minutes (bil) | | 0.52 | 0.65 | 0.85 | 1.12 | 1.50 | 1.50 | 1.30 [5] | 1.43 | 1.57 | | | | 4.12 | 5.80 | 10.16 | 16.76 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | . | | Seq. Change | | 25% | 31% | 32% | 34% | 0% | -13% | 10% | 10% | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | . | | Y/Y Change | | | | | 188% | 131% | 53% | 28% | 5% | | | | | 41% | 75% | 65% | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | . | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | . | *Dec-05 quarter performance from October 14-December 31. | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | . | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | . | Source: eBay, Inc., Internet Outsider | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | . | www.internetoutsider.com | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
[1] expected 92,500 --jjones1 Thursday, July 19, 2007 8:16:14 AM [2] expected 220,000 --jjones1 Thursday, July 19, 2007 8:13:54 AM [3] expected 0.14 --jjones1 Thursday, July 19, 2007 8:17:00 AM [4] expected 7.85 --jjones1 Thursday, July 19, 2007 8:14:46 AM [5] expected 1.5 --jjones1 Thursday, July 19, 2007 8:15:38 AM
|