AOL: Profit Impact of Sub Losses


.	Published By:
.	Silicon Alley Insider
.
.		Mar-05	Jun-05	Sep-05	Dec-05	Mar-06	Jun-06	Sep-06	Dec-06	Mar-07	Jun-07	Sep-07	Dec-07
.
.	SUBSCRIPTION REVENUE	$1,774	$1,734	$1,665	$1,582	$1,538	$1,546	$1,455	$1,245	$873	$691	$540	$432
.	Y/Y Change					-13%	-11%	-13%	-21%	-43%	-55%	-63%	-65%
.
.	Subscribers	21,695	20,778	20,100	19,475	18,640	17,664	15,198	13,183	11,999	10,928	9,000	8,000
.	Y/Y Change					-14%	-15%	-24%	-32%	-36%	-38%	-41%	-39%
.	Absolute Change (Seq.)		(917)	(678)	(625)	(835)	(976)	(2,466)	(2,015)	(1,184)	(1,071)	(1,928)	(1,000)
.
.	Monthly Revenue Per Subscriber (Q end)		$28	$28	$27	$28	$29	$32	$31	$24	$21	$20	$18
.	Y/Y Change						5%	16%	16%	-12%	-28%	-37%	-43%
.
.	ADVERTISING REVENUE	$311	$320	$328	$379	$392	$449	$479	$566	$549	$522	$551	$651
.	Y/Y Change					26%	40%	46%	49%	40%	16%	15%	15%
.
.	TOTAL REVENUE (Includes "Other")	$2,112	$2,079	$2,022	$1,989	$1,957	$2,027	$1,964	$1,838	$1,458	$1,253	$1,131	$1,123
.	Y/Y Change					-7%	-3%	-3%	-8%	-25%	-38%	-42%	-39%


.	Seq. Change						4%	-3%	-6%	-21%	-14%	-10%	-1%
.
.
.	PROFITS
.
.	Adj. EBITDA	$513	$516	$453	$323	$427	$494	$554	$295	$542	$485	$424	$420
.	Y/Y Change					-17%	-4%	22%	-9%	27%	-2%	-23%	42%
.	Seq. Change						16%	12%	-47%	84%	-11%	-13%	-1%
.	Margin	24%	25%	22%	16%	22%	24%	28%	16%	37%	39%	37%	37%
.
.	% EBITDA from SUBSCRIPTION (Est.*)										75%
.	% EBIDTA from ADVERTISING										25%
.
.	SUBSCRIPTION EBITDA										$364
.	% of Revenue										53%
.	ADVERTISING EBITDA										$121
.	% of Revenue										23%
.
.	Change in Subscription Revenue							-$91	-$210	-$372	-$182	-$151	-$108
.	Change in Ad Revenue							$30	$87	-$17	-$27	$29	$100


.	Total	-$122	-$8
.	Estimated "Flow-Through" To EBITDA	50%	50%
.	Change in EBITDA	-$61	-$4
.
.
.	Published By:
.	Silicon Alley Insider
.	Blue = Assumptions
.	Red = Estimates
.	*Estimate from Parsons' comment on 9/18 that subscription is "majority" of profit.