| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | . | Analysis By: | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | . | Silicon Alley Insider | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | . | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | . | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | . | HULU KEY ASSUMPTIONS: Mid-level scale, 10% distribution fees, 70% royalties, 100% videos monetizable, high CPMs. | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | . | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | . | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | . | VIDEO UNIT P&L (CPM) | NOW | | | | | | | FUTURE?* | | | | | | | | | | | | . | Ad Sales Price (CPM) | | $10.00 | $20.00 | $30.00 | $40.00 | $50.00 | | | $10.00 | $20.00 | $30.00 | $40.00 | $50.00 | | | | | | | . | % of Videos Monetizable | | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | | | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | | | | | | | . | Revenue (Effective CPM) | | $10.00 | $20.00 | $30.00 | $40.00 | $50.00 | | | $10.00 | $20.00 | $30.00 | $40.00 | $50.00 | | | | | | | . | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | . | Distributed Videos % | 50% | | | | | | | 50% | | | | | | | | | | | | . | Distribution Fees (on Dist Videos) | 10% | $0.50 | $1.00 | $1.50 | $2.00 | $2.50 | | 10% | $0.50 | $1.00 | $1.50 | $2.00 | $2.50 | | | | | | | . | Royalties (% of Rev After Dist Fee) | 70% | $6.65 | $13.30 | $19.95 | $26.60 | $33.25 | | 70% | $6.65 | $13.30 | $19.95 | $26.60 | $33.25 | | | | | | | . | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | . | Bandwidth (CPM) | | $1.50 | $1.50 | $1.50 | $1.50 | $1.50 | | *Down 50% | $0.75 | $0.75 | $0.75 | $0.75 | $0.75 | | | | | | | . | Storage (CPM) | | $0.20 | $0.20 | $0.20 | $0.20 | $0.20 | | *Down 50% | $0.10 | $0.10 | $0.10 | $0.10 | $0.10 | | | | | | | . | Transcoding (CPM) | | $0.01 | $0.01 | $0.01 | $0.01 | $0.01 | | *Down 50% | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | | | | | | | . | Other (% of Revenue) | 3% | $0.30 | $0.60 | $0.90 | $1.20 | $1.50 | | 3% | $0.30 | $0.60 | $0.90 | $1.20 | $1.50 | | | | | | |
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| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | . | Gross Profit | | $0.85 | $3.40 | $5.95 | $8.50 | $11.05 | | | $1.70 | $4.25 | $6.80 | $9.35 | $11.90 | | | | | | | . | Margin (% of Revenue) | | 8% | 17% | 20% | 21% | 22% | | | 17% | 21% | 23% | 23% | 24% | | | | | | | . | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | . | SG&A (% of Revenue) | | 50% | 50% | 50% | 50% | 50% | | | 50% | 50% | 50% | 50% | 50% | | | | | | | . | SG&A (CPM) | | $5.00 | $10.00 | $15.00 | $20.00 | $25.00 | | | $5.00 | $10.00 | $15.00 | $20.00 | $25.00 | | | | | | | . | Operating Profit | | -$4.16 | -$6.61 | -$9.06 | -$11.51 | -$13.96 | | | -$3.30 | -$5.75 | -$8.20 | -$10.65 | -$13.10 | | | | | | | . | Margin | | -42% | -33% | -30% | -29% | -28% | | | -33% | -29% | -27% | -27% | -26% | | | | | | | . | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | . | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | . | COST ASSUMPTIONS | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | . | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | . | Bandwidth | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | . | Bandwidth Cost Per GB | | $0.05 | $0.08 | $0.10 | $0.13 | $0.15 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | . | Average Video Size (MB) | | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | . | Cost Per Video Stream | | $0.001 | $0.0015 | $0.002 | $0.0025 | $0.003 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | . | Cost Per 1000 Video Streams | | $1.00 | $1.50 | $2.00 | $2.50 | $3.00 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | . | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | . | Transcoding | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | . | Transcoder | | $2,500 | $3,000 | $3,500 | $4,000 | $4,500 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | . | Videos/Day | | 1,000 | 1,000 | 1,000 | 1,000 | 1,000 | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
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| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | . | Videos/Year | | 365,000 | 365,000 | 365,000 | 365,000 | 365,000 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | . | Life (Years) | | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | . | Cost Per Video | | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.01 | $0.01 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | . | Cost Per 1000 Videos | | $3.42 | $4.11 | $4.79 | $5.48 | $6.16 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | . | Average Streams Per Video | | 1,000 | 1,000 | 1,000 | 1,000 | 1,000 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | . | Cost Per 1000 Streams | | $0.003424657534247 | $0.004109589041096 | $0.004794520547945 | $0.005479452054795 | $0.006164383561644 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | . | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | . | Storage | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | . | Storage Server (7 terabytes) | | $5,000 | $6,000 | $7,000 | $8,000 | $9,000 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | . | Capacity (Videos) | | 40,000 | 40,000 | 40,000 | 40,000 | 40,000 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | . | Cost Per Video | | $0.125 | $0.15 | $0.175 | $0.2 | $0.225 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | . | Cost Per 1000 Videos | | $125 | $150 | $175 | $200 | $225 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | . | Average Streams Per Video | | 1,000 | 1,000 | 1,000 | 1,000 | 1,000 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | . | Cost Per 1000 Streams | | $0.13 | $0.15 | $0.18 | $0.20 | $0.23 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | . | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | . | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | . | *Future assumes bandwidth, storage, transcoding costs drop 50%. | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | . | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | . | Published By: | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | . | Silicon Alley Insider | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
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