AOL: Est. Division Profitability

AOL: Division Profitability (Est.)


.	Published By:
.	Silicon Alley Insider
.
.		Mar-05	Jun-05	Sep-05	Dec-05	Mar-06	Jun-06	Sep-06	Dec-06	Mar-07	Jun-07	Sep-07E	Dec-07E
.
.	SUBSCRIPTION REVENUE	$1,774	$1,734	$1,665	$1,582	$1,538	$1,546	$1,455	$1,245	$873	$691	$540	$432
.	Y/Y Change					-13%	-11%	-13%	-21%	-43%	-55%	-63%	-65%
.
.	ADVERTISING REVENUE	$311	$320	$328	$379	$392	$449	$479	$566	$549	$522	$551	$651
.	Y/Y Change					26%	40%	46%	49%	40%	16%	15%	15%
.
.	OTHER REVENUE	$27	$25	$29	$28	$27	$32	$30	$27	$36	$40	$33	$30
.	Y/Y Change					0%	28%	3%	-4%	33%	25%	10%	10%
.
.	TOTAL REVENUE (Includes "Other")	$2,112	$2,079	$2,022	$1,989	$1,957	$2,027	$1,964	$1,838	$1,458	$1,253	$1,131	$1,123
.	Y/Y Change					-7%	-3%	-3%	-8%	-25%	-38%	-42%	-39%
.	Seq. Change						4%	-3%	-6%	-21%	-14%	-10%	-1%
.
.
.	PROFITS


.
.	Adj. EBITDA	$513	$516	$453	$323	$427	$494	$554	$295	$542	$485	$420	$420
.	Y/Y Change					-17%	-4%	22%	-9%	27%	-2%	-24%	42%
.	Seq. Change						16%	12%	-47%	84%	-11%	-13%	0%
.	Margin	24%	25%	22%	16%	22%	24%	28%	16%	37%	39%	37%	37%
.
.	EBITDA From "OTHER" (Est.)										$30
.	NET EBITDA										$455
.
.	% NET EBITDA from SUBSCRIPTION (Est.)										76%
.	% NET EBIDTA from ADVERTISING (Est.)										24%
.
.	SUBSCRIPTION EBITDA										$346
.	% of Revenue*										50%
.	ADVERTISING EBITDA										$109
.	% of Revenue										21%
.
.
.	Published By:
.	Silicon Alley Insider

Blue = Assumptions

Red = Estimates

*Estimate from Parsons' comment on 9/18 that subscription is "majority" of profit and other proprietary research.