08-B presbytery vote reports and analysis


.		Delete-B votes by Presbytery: 2001-2 and 2009
.		last update 6/9/09 by Bruce Hahne, hahne at io.com
.		This spreadsheet is available via http://yeson08b.blogspot.com
.
.	June 9, 2009: voting is now complete. Final presbytery vote tallies are immediately below, with "popular vote" percentages
.	towards the bottom of this spreadsheet. The total of all presbytery votes is 172 rather than 173 because Midwest Hanmi
.	presbytery didn't vote. A non-vote doesn't count as a "no", it's just a non-vote.
.	The "popular vote" vote percentage, which counts the number of people who voted "yes" and "no", was 48.8% yes, 51.2% no.
.
.	Congratulations to More Light Presbyterians and all LGBT equality supporters for a job well done -- the 08-B vote results demonstrate
.	a major pro-equality shift since 2001-2, and clearly show that the PCUSA is trending towards eliminating G-6.0106b in the near future.
.
.	------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
.
.	This spreadsheet provides a running tally of presbytery votes on proposed overture 08-B, and compares the vote percentages
.	to the percentages on the similar (but not completely identical) overture 01-A in 2001-2.
.
.	Total 08-B presbytery votes (yes or no):		172
.	Total 08-B presbytery YES vote count:		78
.	Total 08-B NO vote count:		94


.	Presbytery votes required to pass or fail 08-B:					87
.
.	Number of presbyteries with pro-LGBT vote shift:					121	(compared to 2001-2 voting)
.	Number of presbyteries with anti-LGBT vote shift:					40	(compared to 2001-2 voting)
.	Number of presbytery no-to-yes vote flips:					34	(Western North Carolina, Lake Huron, East Tennessee, Cimarron, Southeastern Illinois, Charlotte, Maumee Valley, Great Rivers, Scioto Valley, Sheppards & Lapsley, Tres Rios, New Hope, Greater Atlanta, Ohio Valley, Arkansas, Yellowstone, Whitewater Valley, Transylvania, Eastminster, West Jersey, Newark, Mackinac, West Virginia, Philadelphia, Grace, Salem, Wabash Valley, Detroit, Lehigh, Western New York, Minnesota Valleys, Utah, Pacific, Missouri River Valley)							4/28/09: I'm now counting Western New York as a no-to-yes flip.
.	Number of presbytery yes-to-no vote flips:					2	(San Francisco, Sierra Blanca)
.	Average pro-LGBT vote shift across all voted presbyteries, 2001/2 to 2009:									6.38	percent
.	Number of tie votes:			3	(Cincinnati, Central Nebraska, Mission)
.					Ties count as "no", but we'll claim a moral victory for "almost yes" :-)
.
.	Presbytery and synod geographical maps are available at: www.pcusa.org/links
.
.	What does a "yes" or "no" vote mean?
.	A vote for 01-A in 2001-2, or for 08-B in 2009, is a vote for LGBT equality in the PCUSA.
.	A vote against 01-A in 2001-2, or against 08-B in 2009, is a vote against LGBT equality in the PCUSA.
.
.								Change in YES percent,
.								2001-2 to 2009.	Indicator:	(Intermediate
.		2001-2: 01-A-VOTING				2009: 08-B VOTING					>0 means a pro-LGBT	Pro (1) or anti (-1)	computation only:
.		01-A vote	01-A vote	01-A vote	08-B vote	08-B vote	08-B vote	vote shift, <0 means an	LGBT vote shift	1 if vote complete,	Approximate


.	Presbytery	yes	no	percent yes	yes	no	percent yes	anti-LGBT vote shift	compared to 2001-2	empty if not yet voted)	vote date	Notes
.	Abingdon	VOICE - no	VOICE - no		29	41	41.4		1	1	3/18/2009	Listing the shift (column I) as pro-equality is speculative but seems reasonable to me due to strong 41% YES vote in 2009.
.	Alaska	15	24	38.5	12	21	36.4	-2.1	-1	1	4/18/2009
.	Albany	74	28	72.5	78	25	75.7	3.2	1	1
.	Arkansas	92	96	48.9	116	64	64.4	15.5	1	1	2/21/2009
.	Atlantic Korean-Amer.	0	32	0.0	0	18	0.0	0.0		1	4/18/2009
.	Baltimore	106	56	65.4	106	38	73.6	8.2	1	1
.	Beaver-Butler	VOICE - no	VOICE - no		21	92	18.6			1	3/24/2009
.	Blackhawk	48	90	34.8	57	73	43.8	9.1	1	1	2/10/2009
.	Boise	20	20	50.0	25	34	42.4	-7.6	-1	1	4/25/2009
.	Boston	59	42	58.4	54	42	56.3	-2.2	-1	1	3/23/2009
.	Carlisle	58	81	41.7	71	74	49.0	7.2	1	1
.	Cascades	179	112	61.5	150	48	75.8	14.2	1	1	3/14/2009
.	Cayuga-Syracuse	54	21	72.0	33	12	73.3	1.3	1	1	1/31/2009
.	Central Florida	74	225	24.7	48	164	22.6	-2.1	-1	1
.	Central Nebraska	24	39	38.1	21	21	50.0	11.9	1	1	3/7/2009
.	Central Washington	16	70	18.6	7	55	11.3	-7.3	-1	1
.	Charleston-Atlantic	22	93	19.1	30	89	25.2	6.1	1	1	3/25/2009
.	Charlotte	VOICE - no	VOICE - no		133	124	51.8		1	1	2/14/2009
.	Cherokee	VOICE - no	VOICE - no		24	79	23.3			1	2/24/2009


.	Chicago	247	170	59.2	204	69	74.7	15.5	1	1	2/10/2009
.	Cimarron	16	20	44.4	19	16	54.3	9.8	1	1	2/10/2009
.	Cincinnati	95	113	45.7	83	83	50.0	4.3	1	1	2/10/2009
.	Coastal Carolina	95	286	24.9	110	205	34.9	10.0	1	1	3/7/2009
.	Dakota	1	20	4.8	0	?	0.0	-4.8	-1	1	5/10/2009	The report I have lists a "no" vote with no precise count.
.	de Cristo	70	55	56.0	59	48	55.1	-0.9	-1	1	4/25/2009
.	Denver	115	69	62.5	114	40	74.0	11.5	1	1	3/24/2009
.	Des Moines	69	46	60.0	52	37	58.4	-1.6	-1	1
.	Detroit	102	111	47.9	141	92	60.5	12.6	1	1	4/28/2009
.	Donegal	77	118	39.5	63	87	42.0	2.5	1	1
.	East Iowa	78	69	53.1	74	21	77.9	24.8	1	1	5/12/2009
.	East Tennessee	VOICE - no	VOICE - no		81	66	55.1		1	1
.	Eastern Korean	0	48	0.0	0	55	0.0	0.0		1	3/4/2009
.	Eastern Oklahoma	40	86	31.7	49	56	46.7	14.9	1	1
.	Eastern Oregon	17	14	54.8	22	6	78.6	23.7	1	1	2/21/2009
.	Eastern Virginia	70	98	41.7	72	80	47.4	5.7	1	1
.	Eastminster	54	65	45.4	60	39	60.6	15.2	1	1	3/10/2009
.	Elizabeth	80	68	54.1	91	53	63.2	9.1	1	1	3/24/2009
.	Flint River	20	71	22.0	27	47	36.5	14.5	1	1	2/8/2009
.	Florida	42	66	38.9	41	46	47.1	8.2	1	1


.	Foothills	41	132	23.7	34	99	25.6	1.9	1	1
.	Genesee Valley	98	62	61.3	93	24	79.5	18.2	1	1	3/28/2009
.	Geneva	65	35	65.0	44	29	60.3	-4.7	-1	1	3/24/2009
.	Giddings-Lovejoy	115	106	52.0	125	53	70.2	18.2	1	1	2/21/2009
.	Glacier	11	21	34.4	7	28	20.0	-14.4	-1	1	2/17/2009
.	Grace	109	154	41.4	203	182	52.7	11.3	1	1	3/28/2009	Corrected vote - originally reported as 202-183
.	Grand Canyon	122	96	56.0	98	93	51.3	-4.7	-1	1	3/21/2009
.	Great Rivers	99	108	47.8	85	74	53.5	5.6	1	1	2/18/2009
.	Greater Atlanta	235	283	45.4	243	233	51.1	5.7	1	1	2/21/2009
.	Hanmi	0	70	0.0	1	30	3.2	3.2	1	1	3/13/2009
.	Heartland	150	139	51.9	127	90	58.5	6.6	1	1	3/7/2009
.	Holston	22	74	22.9	24	68	26.1	3.2	1	1	3/7/2009
.	Homestead	46	62	42.6	37	40	48.1	5.5	1	1	2/21/2009
.	Hudson River	103	28	78.6	94	12	88.7	10.1	1	1	2/24/2009
.	Huntingdon	26	62	29.5	26	36	41.9	12.4	1	1	1/31/2009
.	Indian Nations	52	52	50.0	38	43	46.9	-3.1	-1	1	2/27/2009	Biased voting process - no discussion was held; presbytery went directly to a vote.
.	Inland Northwest	22	112	16.4	44	76	36.7	20.2	1	1	2/14/2009
.	James	130	190	40.6	125	192	39.4	-1.2	-1	1	2/21/2009
.	John Calvin	16	76	17.4	33	55	37.5	20.1	1	1	3/7/2009
.	John Knox	66	62	51.6	39	13	75.0	23.4	1	1	2/21/2009


.	Kendall	8	22	26.7	6	18	25.0	-1.7	-1	1	2/28/2009
.	Kiskiminetas	35	76	31.5	34	76	30.9	-0.6	-1	1	5/12/2009	5/13/09: corrected 08-B vote count
.	Lackawanna	26	49	34.7	30	40	42.9	8.2	1	1
.	Lake Erie	37	65	36.3	32	58	35.6	-0.7	-1	1	2/21/2009
.	Lake Huron	42	64	39.6	43	32	57.3	17.7	1	1	2/3/2009
.	Lake Michigan	92	59	60.9	94	42	69.1	8.2	1	1	3/10/2009
.	Lehigh	50	62	44.6	60	46	56.6	12.0	1	1	4/28/2009
.	Long Island	87	28	75.7	78	29	72.9	-2.8	-1	1	3/31/2009
.	Los Ranchos	53	159	25.0	35	143	19.7	-5.3	-1	1
.	Mackinac	25	39	39.1	44	32	57.9	18.8	1	1	3/21/2009	Conflicted data about whether 2001 vote was voice or counted. I'll stick with the counted report of "25 yes / 39 no in 2001" for the moment.
.	Maumee Valley	51	70	42.1	65	58	52.8	10.7	1	1	2/17/2009
.	Memphis / Mid-South	59	99	37.3	31	67	31.6	-5.7	-1	1	2/14/2009
.	Miami Valley (Ohio)	86	53	61.9	72	48	60.0	-1.9	-1	1	2/14/2009
.	Mid-Kentucky	113	63	64.2	90	19	82.6	18.4	1	1	2/21/2009
.	Middle Tennessee	95	118	44.6	95	139	40.6	-4.0	-1	1	5/7/2009
.	Midwest Hanmi	0	44	0.0	won't vote	won't vote	won't vote					5/19/2009: Office of General Assembly has confirmed that Midwest Hanmi does not plan to vote on 08-B.
.	Milwaukee	68	35	66.0	86	24	78.2	12.2	1	1	2/24/2009
.	Minnesota Valleys	44	60	42.3	44	37	54.3	12.0	1	1	5/2/2009
.	Mission	164	235	41.1	181	181	50.0	8.9	1	1	3/7/2009
.	Mississippi	9	55	14.1	2	49	3.9	-10.1	-1	1


.	Missouri River Valley	65	68	48.9	50	41	54.9	6.1	1	1	5/19/2009
.	Missouri Union	34	46	42.5	31	48	39.2	-3.3	-1	1	2/26/2009
.	Monmouth	68	47	59.1	72	41	63.7	4.6	1	1
.	Muskingum Valley	51	117	30.4	44	70	38.6	8.2	1	1	3/14/2009
.	National Capital	220	116	65.5	222	102	68.5	3.0	1	1	4/21/2009
.	Nevada	20	41	32.8	13	59	18.1	-14.7	-1	1	3/10/2009
.	New Brunswick	113	50	69.3	95	44	68.3	-1.0	-1	1	3/10/2009
.	New Castle	65	55	54.2	82	48	63.1	8.9	1	1
.	New Covenant	120	214	35.9	119	171	41.0	5.1	1	1	2/7/2009
.	New Harmony	VOICE - no	VOICE - no		20	99	16.8			1	2/28/2009
.	New Hope	153	159	49.0	177	139	56.0	7.0	1	1	2/21/2009
.	New York City	61	31	66.3	76	25	75.2	8.9	1	1	3/28/2009
.	Newark	34	40	45.9	42	8	84.0	38.1	1	1	3/21/2009
.	Newton (NJ)	82	34	70.7	63	16	79.7	9.1	1	1
.	Noroeste	VOICE - no	VOICE - no		7	41	14.6		1	1	5/16/2009	First-hand information from a presbytery member indicates that initial vote reports sent to OGA and other sources were incorrect. The correct vote count is 7 yes, 41 no, 1 abstaining. This is very likely a pro-equality shift, so I'll mark it that way in the pro/anti equality shift column. However the actual percentage shift from 2001-2 is unknown due to the prior voice vote.
.	North Alabama	VOICE - no	VOICE - no		30	48	38.5		1	1	2/21/2009	Listing the shift (column I) as pro-equality is speculative but seems reasonable to me due to strong 38.5% YES vote in 2009.
.	North Central Iowa	46	65	41.4	31	60	34.1	-7.4	-1	1	3/3/2009
.	North Puget Sound	39	73	34.8	42	69	37.8	3.0	1	1	2/28/2009
.	Northeast Georgia	44	101	30.3	49	89	35.5	5.2	1	1	2/28/2009
.	Northern Kansas	73	49	59.8	71	23	75.5	15.7	1	1


.	Northern New England	75	40	65.2	56	30	65.1	-0.1	-1	1	3/14/2009
.	Northern New York	42	19	68.9	VOICE - yes	VOICE - yes				1	3/31/2009
.	Northern Plains	35	51	40.7	21	33	38.9	-1.8	-1	1	4/25/2009
.	Northern Waters	41	30	57.7	53	11	82.8	25.1	1	1	5/7/2009
.	Northumberland	28	51	35.4	20	58	25.6	-9.8	-1	1	3/21/2009
.	Ohio Valley	74	90	45.1	57	44	56.4	11.3	1	1	2/21/2009
.	Olympia	32	110	22.5	44	98	31.0	8.5	1	1	3/19/2009
.	Pacific	99	100	49.7	100	90	52.6	2.9	1	1	5/12/2009
.	Palisades	59	33	64.1	35	20	63.6	-0.5	-1	1
.	Palo Duro	36	64	36.0	29	47	38.2	2.2	1	1
.	Peace River	37	105	26.1	63	82	43.4	17.4	1	1	2/26/2009
.	Peaks	77	166	31.7	74	136	35.2	3.6	1	1	2/7/2009
.	Philadelphia	176	221	44.3	152	139	52.2	7.9	1	1	3/28/2009
.	Pines	31	45	40.8	34	36	48.6	7.8	1	1	2/14/2009
.	Pittsburgh	137	277	33.1	105	206	33.8	0.7	1	1	3/13/2009
.	Plains & Peaks	60	91	39.7	41	60	40.6	0.9	1	1	2/7/2009
.	Prospect Hill	24	62	27.9	12	63	16.0	-11.9	-1	1	2/7/2009
.	Providence	38	63	37.6	39	48	44.8	7.2	1	1	3/11/2009
.	Pueblo	23	77	23.0	27	54	33.3	10.3	1	1	2/11/2009
.	Redstone	33	85	28.0	46	75	38.0	10.1	1	1	3/21/2009


.	Redwoods	102	49	67.5	102	28	78.5	10.9	1	1	2/7/2009
.	Riverside	18	94	16.1	42	53	44.2	28.1	1	1	3/10/2009
.	Sacramento	69	109	38.8	65	75	46.4	7.7	1	1	2/21/2009
.	Saint Andrew	11	86	11.3	30	50	37.5	26.2	1	1	2/4/2009
.	Saint Augustine	66	105	38.6	68	75	47.6	9.0	1	1	2/14/2009
.	Salem	160	187	46.1	156	149	51.1	5.0	1	1	4/21/2009
.	San Diego	37	102	26.6	17	74	18.7	-7.9	-1	1
.	San Fernando	35	91	27.8	22	74	22.9	-4.9	-1	1
.	San Francisco	216	186	53.7	167	177	48.5	-5.2	-1	1	4/21/2009
.	San Gabriel	97	181	34.9	79	136	36.7	1.9	1	1	3/10/2009
.	San Joaquin	3	79	3.7	8	74	9.8	6.1	1	1
.	San Jose	85	75	53.1	84	81	50.9	-2.2	-1	1	4/4/2009
.	San Juan	VOICE - no	VOICE - no		VOICE? - no	VOICE? - no				1	3/11/2009
.	Santa Barbara	39	101	27.9	20	85	19.0	-8.8	-1	1	1/31/2009
.	Santa Fe	108	42	72.0	110	23	82.7	10.7	1	1	2/21/2009
.	Savannah	20	54	27.0	29	38	43.3	16.3	1	1	5/13/2009
.	Scioto Valley	103	105	49.5	115	88	56.7	7.1	1	1	2/17/2009
.	Seattle	109	188	36.7	91	155	37.0	0.3	1	1	3/17/2009
.	Shenandoah	77	146	34.5	82	112	42.3	7.7	1	1	2/14/2009
.	Shenango	VOICE - no	VOICE - no		4	101	3.8			1	2/25/2009	Vote has been misreported elsewhere as 4-191. Stated clerk has confirmed 4-101. Vote did not use secret ballot -- was taken by having voters stand up to have their vote counted.


.	Sheppards & Lapsley	59	109	35.1	77	75	50.7	15.5	1	1	2/19/2009
.	Sierra Blanca	18	17	51.4	23	30	43.4	-8.0	-1	1	4/25/2009
.	Suroeste	VOICE - no	VOICE - no		0	41	0.0			1	5/31/2009
.	South Alabama	18	49	26.9	24	33	42.1	15.2	1	1	2/28/2009
.	South Dakota	22	66	25.0	32	48	40.0	15.0	1	1	3/7/2009
.	South Louisiana	51	71	41.8	42	55	43.3	1.5	1	1	4/4/2009
.	Southeastern Illinois	69	77	47.3	68	56	54.8	7.6	1	1	2/12/2009
.	Southern Kansas	42	94	30.9	35	69	33.7	2.8	1	1	1/31/2009
.	Southern New England	109	72	60.2	97	50	66.0	5.8	1	1	5/2/2009
.	Stockton	14	44	24.1	11	39	22.0	-2.1	-1	1
.	Susquehanna Valley	43	27	61.4	59	23	72.0	10.5	1	1	3/28/2009
.	Tampa Bay	63	142	30.7	71	105	40.3	9.6	1	1	2/28/2009
.	Transylvania	50	83	37.6	83	61	57.6	20.0	1	1	3/10/2009
.	Tres Rios	17	54	23.9	37	34	52.1	28.2	1	1	2/20/2009
.	Trinity	42	114	26.9	48	106	31.2	4.2	1	1	3/7/2009
.	Tropical Florida	55	116	32.2	21	93	18.4	-13.7	-1	1	2/21/2009
.	Twin Cities	197	112	63.8	138	54	71.9	8.1	1	1	3/14/2009
.	Upper Ohio Valley	18	80	18.4	12	72	14.3	-4.1	-1	1
.	Utah	21	32	39.6	28	25	52.8	13.2	1	1	5/9/2009
.	Utica	24	8	75.0	VOICE - yes	VOICE - yes				1		Originally reported as 70 yes, 3 no. Stated clerk has confirmed voice vote, so removing 2009 vote numbers.


.	Wabash Valley	83	102	44.9	78	60	56.5	11.7	1	1	4/21/2009
.	Washington	27	82	24.8	29	70	29.3	4.5	1	1
.	West Jersey	80	83	49.1	88	80	52.4	3.3	1	1	3/17/2009
.	Western Colorado	6	33	15.4	11	23	32.4	17.0	1	1	2/18/2009
.	Western Kentucky	16	52	23.5	17	42	28.8	5.3	1	1
.	Western New York	NO ACTION	NO ACTION		66	48	57.9		1	1	3/28/2009	"No action" in 2001-2 is equivalent to "no", so Western NY is actually a no-to-yes flip. 4/28/09: I'm now listing this as a no-to-yes flip.
.	Western North Carolina	100	165	37.7	144	108	57.1	19.4	1	1	1/31/2009
.	Western Reserve	131	73	64.2	107	42	71.8	7.6	1	1	3/23/2009
.	West Virginia	92	114	44.7	93	56	62.4	17.8	1	1	3/21/2009
.	Whitewater Valley	95	150	38.8	108	106	50.5	11.7	1	1	3/7/2009
.	Winnebago	50	20	71.4	55	20	73.3	1.9	1	1	2/7/2009
.	Wyoming	VOICE - no	VOICE - no		18	38	32.1			1	2/8/2009
.	Yellowstone	29	37	43.9	25	23	52.1	8.1	1	1	3/2/2009
.	Yukon	12	40	23.1	17	42	28.8	5.7	1	1	2/28/2009
.
.		2001-2			2009
.		01-A vote	01-A vote	01-A vote	08-B vote	08-B vote	08-B vote	Change in percent,	Pro or
.	Presbytery	yes	no	percent yes	yes	no	percent yes	2001-2 to 2009	anti-LGBT shift
.
.


.
.	Human vote totals, counting only those presbyteries which have voted so far in 2009:
.		2001-2	2001-2		2009
.		01-A vote	01-A vote	01-A vote	08-B vote	08-B vote	08-B vote	Change in percent,
.		yes	no	percent yes	yes	no	percent yes	2001-2 to 2009
.		10254	13341	43.5	10416	10914	48.8	5.4
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.	(May 8, 2009: "late voting competitive disadvantage" section removed since those computations were specific to the March-April timeframe.)
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